(The
anticipated western disturbance has set a wave of panic among people because of
the recent system failure caused by just few inches of snow!)
Over
last few days a weather warning has been issued by the Metrological Department.
A strong western disturbance is expected to reach J&K around 24th
January. Probably, there may be more than one disturbance back to back. The
weather warning has created panic among the people and apprehensions of a
system failure are strong. This is so because of the recent debacle caused by
hardly half a foot of snow. The warning says there may be very heavy snowfall
and there is possibility of avalanches in higher reaches. The satellite
pictures did show a series of western disturbances approaching Kashmir. Our
weather in winter is dependent on these western disturbances. It is only
recently that the people have got weather conscious. Thanks to Mr. Sonam Lotus,
the head of the Metrology Department in Kashmir, even common man is acquainted
with the weather forecasts. He has become a household name. His forecast
preceding the 2014 devastating flood was most accurate but unfortunately, the
government at that time virtually slept over it. The best they could do was to
throw bananas from the state helicopter to the marooned people!
In
earlier times, the weather was a for granted thing. There was a set pattern.
Kashmir used to have four clear seasons unlike other places in the
sub-continent. Spring, summer, autumn and winter had very distinct succession.
This was before the global climate change. During winter, people expected heavy
snowfalls. During one’s childhood sometimes the snow would accumulate almost to
the first floor level. People would be prepared for severe winter in every
possible way. Firewood bukharis and charcoal for kangris would be stored in
advance. The vegetables would be dried in autumn itself. There were no fresh
vegetables during winter. There was no mechanized transport and there was no
need for road clearance. People would make their own ways for travelling from
one locality to the other. People were also alert to shove off snow from roof
tops. Most of the time, the winter was an occasion for hibernation and
meditation. Early morning Harissa, a dish made from meat and rice was a treat
which people enjoyed. Life was going on at a very comfortable pace. Those were
the days of fun and relaxation. Heavy snow warnings did not exist!
Then
came the “modernization” and the “development”. Everything changed. We became
part of the “civilized modern world”! Now we have modern roads with over a
million vehicles moving all over; railways, and airlines. The life is fully
mechanized and systemized. There is now a well-regulated “system” running our
day to day life. However, a small vagary of weather throws everything out of
gear and we have the “system failure” causing panic everywhere! The worst part
of the panic is our getting totally isolated from the outside world. It is
because of our total dependence on the only surface access to the outside world
which gets closed with every snowfall. In olden days, before 1947, our all
supplies used to come through the Jhelum Valley Road which never closes during
winter. The present National Highway which used to be called the “Bannihal Cart
Road” was used only in summer.
While
discussing the weather forecasts it must be emphasized that it is very
difficult to predict exact weather weeks in advance. One may be able to give a
general picture of the possible conditions after studying various parameters
which keep on continuously changing. However, with latest satellite technology
and computers, it may be possible to give exact weather few days in advance.
Again it needs to be updated continuously due to changes in wind speed and
direction and the amount of precipitation in the clouds. Even though we may
miss the good old days of relaxation and peace, yet to cope up with the
changing modern times, we need to be fully abreast of the weather conditions. For
this we need to thank Mr. Sonam Lotus for not only making us weather conscious
but constantly keeping us up to date about the fast changing conditions. Let us
hope and pray that we survive the possible catastrophe predicted by him. The
warning not only alerted everyone but is keeping the government also on its
toes! Thank you, Mr. Sonam Lotus! People interested in tracking weather through
hourly satellite photographs can use the following links:
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